I am admittedly a bit late to the table with this post – it has been a very busy month or so for me, but in the past couple of weeks the Alberta government quietly walked back to key policy changes made earlier this year.

A Markup Mulligan

You may remember (if you don’t read my post about it here) that in its 2025/26 budget the UCP government shrunk the Small Brewer Markup Schedule, reducing the maximum volume before full markup rates applied from 400,000 hL to 180,000 hL. As I said at the time, this had a negligible impact on most Alberta breweries, as they are far too small to be impacted by the change. However, Big Rock in particular, along with other regional breweries such as Great Western, Steam Whistle and others, took a big hit. I estimated it would cost Big Rock $1 million in extra markups.

Well, three months later, won’t you know, they have backtracked on that change. As of June 1 the small brewer schedule now tops out at 300,000 hL. Not quite back to where it was, but high enough that the negative impact on Big Rock and other regional brewers has been nullified. My estimate is that Big Rock’s rate has returned to its pre-budget level, give our take a cent or two.

The government’s official line is that this is a response to tariffs and trade uncertainty. Maybe. But I think it is more attributable to the dogged lobbying by Big Rock and the Alberta Small Brewers’ Association in the past couple months attempting to highlight how short-sighted the change was. That and maybe a delayed recognition that imposing a policy that benefits the American-dominated big breweries wasn’t great optics at this time.

Relenting on the U.S. Liquor Ban

Or then again, maybe they haven’t figured out the optics of U.S.-Canada relations yet. Because on June 6 the AGLC resumed accepting U.S. liquor into the province. The province suspended the import of all U.S.-produced liquor on March 5 in response to Donald Trump’s first wave of tariffs on Canadian goods. The province was just part of a stampede of Premier’s rushing to show how quickly they could pull U.S. bourbon and other products from their store shelves. Read my analysis of the impacts of the trade war here.

Only Alberta and Saskatchewan have announced an end to their American liquor ban. Ontario and Nova Scotia recently re-iterated their commitment to the policy following Alberta’s announcement.

I will admit I am mystified at why Alberta and Saskatchewan have reversed their ban. I see no political upside – Canadians are still pissed at the U.S. government and remain in a fighting mood, and this kind of capitulation will barely register with the addled and easily distracted Trump. Both governments seem unable to read the room on this file.

I respect the ban caught a number of liquor importers flat-footed and out tens of thousands of dollars as a consequence. However, it makes no sense to reverse the ban for this small group of companies, when other options were available, including compensation for product destroyed or rendered unusable.

For beer consumers the reversal will only impact the margins – as most beer consumed in Alberta is produced in Canada. Yet, I don’t think we will see a return of the few brands that had been hit by the ban. Buying local has been the trend for a number of years now and the trade war has made Canadians even more likely to buy Canadian products. They have found alternatives to U.S. products and are unlikely to switch back in large numbers anytime soon.

Which makes the reversal even more perplexing. Consumers are speaking with their dollars. There has been no outcry from people losing their favourite U.S. tipple. In fact the opposite has occurred. Consumers have heartily embraced shunning American products. Why not side with Albertans on this? Why risk alienating people who are pissed off at the U.S. and want to send a message?

The Alberta (and Saskatchewan) governments are making themselves look weak in the face of Donald Trump, running offside from their constituents, and will get no economic bump for the reversal. Utter foolishness.