I have had a bit of time in the couple of days following the announcement of the 2020 Alberta Beer Award winners, which you can find here, to do something of an historical analysis of the first three years of the awards. The number crunching reveals some interesting patterns and surprises about Alberta’s beer industry.

In three years, there have been a total of 210 medals (not including Best Of or Soda categories) awarded to 74 different breweries. In 2019 there were 23 breweries who won for the first time and this year another 18 climbed the (virtual) podium for the first time. This number will naturally decline in coming years as fewer breweries enter the market and more existing breweries pick up their first victory.

Four breweries who won medals in the past are either now out of business (Coulee, Two Sergeants) or no longer eligible due to buy-outs (Wildrose, Banded Peak). I fear next year that list will be, unfortunately, longer.

Brewery Trends

Scanning the list of winners a few observations. First, I am struck by the range of the breweries who have won. The largest brewery, by far, which won category medals is Big Rock (4 medals). The smallest, I think, is Norsemen Brewing in Camrose (1 medal). That is a pretty big difference.

The other observation is the mix from old to young. The longtime mainstays of Alberta’s beer scene have shown their own in the competition. Alley Kat (see below), Big Rock, Brewsters (4 medals), Grizzly Paw (3) and Wild Rose (3 in the two years they were eligible) have all proven they still know a thing or two about brewing good beer.

On the other end, there are no shortage of new breweries who have scooped up medals.

Looking at multiple winners, a couple interesting trends emerge. Here are the top ten breweries by category medal over the first three years (the .5 is a collaboration beer):

I recognize this tally privileges those breweries that have been around all three years. Keep in mind that almost 60 breweries were operating the first year of the competition (which is why we started it), so that includes half of the breweries who were eligible this year.

As additional data, 20 breweries have appeared on one of the three Best Of podiums (Best of Show, Brewery of the Year, New Brewery of the Year – only offered 2019 and 2020). However, only two breweries have shown up on Best Of more than once. Alley Kat has appeared ALL three years (Brewery of Years 2018, Best of Show & Brewery of Year 2019, Best of Show 2020) and Blindman Brewing has made it twice (Brewery of Year 2018, Best of Show 2020).

What to make of this?

I think it shows two things. First, the level of competition is quite high. It is really, really hard to consistently place your beer in the medals. Second, I think it demonstrates that our personal perceptions of breweries and their relative “quality” are not particularly accurate. At various times and places I have heard people rave about every single brewery on the top ten list. I have also heard people dismiss every single brewery on that list. I have no doubt all of you scan that list and wrinkle your nose at one or two names on it. Similarly each of you has a couple of breweries you think should be on the list instead.

Fair enough. But that is my point. Competitions are useful in checking our biases. By no means are medals the only measure of a brewery’s success, but they also provide an objective way of looking at a beer or a brewery.

Beer Trends

As hard as it is for breweries to consistently win medals at the ABAs, it is similarly difficult for a specific beer to repeat from year to year. Across the three years, only 14 beer have repeated on the podium, and only one – Tool Shed Red Rage – has won in all three competitions.

Here is the list of repeat winners

I recognize that given the six entry limit breweries do not enter every beer every year. They have to make decisions. Plus many of the beer that win in any given year are a seasonal or one-off that are not produced again. Still, there are hundreds of beer produced year round by Alberta breweries. The fact only 14 have one twice or more reinforces the point that it is much harder to win a medal than might seem on the surface.

As I scan the list of one-time winners, there are some amazing year-round beer. Yet they didn’t reach the podium more than once (yet). I find that interesting.

It also highlights that competitions are a snapshot in time. They measure the state of a particular beer on a particular day. Maybe the entry was a bit old at the time of judging. Maybe the shipping and handling pushed it into a less-than-ideal form (a particular problem for beer in growlers). Maybe it was a really stacked category making it hard to break away from the pack.

Which goes to show that failing to win a medal is not a sign of a sub-standard beer. Nor is winning a medal an indication that it is the best of that style around. Although it does suggest there is something quite positive to be said about the beer and it is likely worth giving a try.

Odd Trends

I discovered one odd, little pattern in the numbers. It appears you are more likely to win more medals if your brewery name begins with A, B, or C. Breweries starting with those letters (22 in total) have won 84.75 medals in the three years. Breweries with names starting with the letters D through O (26 breweries) have won 51.5 medals. And breweries through letters P through Z (26 breweries) have won 74.75.

I have no idea what it means. In my day job we would call that a spurious correlation. The name of the brewery cannot possibly have an impact on the number of medals won.

However, if you are a superstitious type and thinking of opening a brewery, coming up with a name starting with the first three letters of the alphabet might be a good idea.