Last year in my annual-ish statistical analysis of craft beer in Canada, I declared the party was over (read it here, and you can find 2022 and 2020 as well, as well as my Quebec 2023 update). The period of constant growth was over, the industry had hit a plateau and there were signs some contraction was about to begin. Well, I ran the numbers in the past couple weeks and can confirm: contraction has begun. 2024 saw the first real reduction in the number of breweries in over two decades. And from what I hear from people around the country, it has only just begun.

The calculations below are from my personal database of Canadian breweries. I update the list by cross-referencing different sources around the country. Of note – and deserving of thanks – are Jordan St. John’s brewery map of Ontario and Association des microbrasseries du Quebec (AMBQ) who provide me with a list that helps me get past my language barriers. My totals may differ from others as I cluster by corporate ownership (only one location per province counts on my list) and exclude contract breweries and breweries who have a license but are not yet producing. I cannot guarantee 100% accuracy, but I am confident each province is accurate within a couple of breweries either way.

Breweries in Canada

Overall Canada saw a net drop in breweries of 40 breweries, or -3.4%. This is a fairly modest reduction. No region was spared – although a couple of provinces did avoid a drop. The net figure, obviously, takes into consideration brewery closures as well as new brewery openings, meaning that for the first time in a long time, the number of closures outstripped openings.

The net figure may miss the biggest storyline in 2024: the magnitude of closures. Approximately 100 breweries closed their doors in the past year (I don’t have an exact count because I do minor updates through the year requiring me to retrace my steps). That is about 8.5% of Canadian breweries. Interestingly (and depressingly) that is close to the number a CBC News story predicted last year, which suggested 10% to 20% would close. The table below tracks the changes over the past 7 years.

Optimists have a legitimate case in pointing to the fact that the number of breweries is up 70% since 2017. Fair enough. But I look at the fact the number has hovered in the mid-1100s for three years now. That is the very definition of a plateau. The optimist may retort that a plateau is not a reduction and that by my numbers about 60 new breweries opened their doors this year. Sure, if you squint you can see a good news story here.

But I don’t. There is nothing in the data or the current economic circumstances that make me think even mid-1100s is sustainable over the next couple of years. In most regions the pace of new breweries has slowed to a trickle, while the pace of closures has not similarly abated. Not a good combo.

Plus the story gets worse. If we look at per capita numbers, there were 2.77 breweries for 100,000 Canadians this year; 3.27 if we count only those 15 years plus. Last year those numbers were 3.04 and 3.61 respectively. That is a 9.1% drop. I recognize that Canada has seen a significant population boost in the past year or two, and so the denominator is inflated. But more people should mean more economic activity and more potential consumers (broadly speaking).

What the numbers don’t tell us is how well the surviving breweries are faring in terms of market share. I have no hard numbers for this post (that is a bunch of research hours all by itself), but data from the U.S. suggests craft beer is still making headway in the beer market (vis a vis the big boys) but beer, in general is a declining segment, losing ground to cider, RTDs and non-alcoholic beverages. Simply put, craft beer is grabbing more of a shrinking pie. I suspect a similar dynamic is at play in Canada. Anecdotal conversations with industry people I know seem to confirm this.

Breweries by Province

If we look by province, we see a bit of variation, enough to make for an interesting story, but no one – other than Manitoba – avoids the main narrative arc. Some provinces are in the stagnation chapter of the story while others have turned the page and are in full out decline. The table below shows the number of breweries active in each province and the change from last year.

I will focus mainly on the four big provinces, because as much as some of the numbers in smaller jurisdictions are staggering, there are relatively small movements behind them. The jaw-dropping 40% drop in Yukon is due to two breweries closing. While huge for that community, in the statistical picture it isn’t that much.

Ontario fared the worst, losing 20 breweries (net), almost 6% overall. Quebec didn’t fare much better at a drop of 3.8%. These two provinces account for 80% of the net closures in the country. B.C. fares better, dropping less than 2%, but they had a disproportionate number of new breweries, which hide a more significant number of closures (about 15). Not good news.

Some may be surprised that Alberta grew by one brewery, especially since I reported in a previous post (here) that Alberta has seen 10 breweries close this year and only four (now five) open. That is due to a combination of some late 2023 openings and a couple re-classifications on my part due to new information (keeping a brewery database is more art than science sometimes). So I personally consider that a statistical anomaly and argue that Alberta is exiting the plateau zone and moving into a contraction period, similar to B.C.

I can’t really explain Manitoba’s significant jump with three new breweries. I know the province started its growth phase later than most provinces, and so it may be attributable to that, but someone feel free to fill me in on the dynamics at play there.

Breweries Per Capita

That statistic that I believe is the most revealing is breweries per capita. I believe this number reflects the overall strength of the industry in a province as it tells us how vibrant the industry is given the size of their potential market. I offer the straight-up breweries per 100,000 figure, but I think the 15-years+ figure is more relevant, for obvious reasons (and to preempt the questions, Statistics Canada doesn’t do an 18+ breakdown in their public datasets).

For the third “year” in a row, New Brunswick holds the top spot for breweries per capita, actually increasing its margin over its nearest rivals. PEI takes over second spot, dropping Nova Scotia to third. This year, though, New Brunswick gets to claim undisputed title, as Yukon’s fall back dropped them back by a hair. The order of the big four is unchanged: B.C. a fair distance ahead followed by Quebec and Alberta closely clustered and Ontario lagging.

But the thing I want to highlight is the trend lines. Last year 9 of 13 jurisdictions were had negative per capita numbers. This year it is 12 of 13, with only Manitoba avoiding the big minus sign. This statistics tells me the entire country is in contraction territory when factoring in population growth.

When I read last year’s analysis I fear my closing comments were spot on: “All that is to say that I think 2024 will be a year of consolidation. We will see more brewery closures, and likely at a pace that outstrips the number of new breweries. In short, I fear my next industry update will have an even more negative conclusion.” Sigh.

I want to leave you with a more optimistic assessment this year, but I have nothing that allows me to do that. 2025 will see further contraction in the craft beer scene, and the pace may accelerate. There are simply not very many new breweries on the horizon for next year and too many existing breweries who are hanging on by their teeth. That spells more bad news next year.

Sorry. Now go drown your sorrows at a the taproom of your favourite local brewery. Every pint helps!