Longtime followers of my work will know that I keep a database of every brewery in Canada. I don’t guarantee that it is perfect, but I trust it is likely the most complete compendium of breweries in the country. Periodically, I run a bunch of statistics to determine where things are at in Canadian beer. My last effort at this was in the fall of 2020, during the height of COVID hell. You can read that post here.

Well, I had time to run the number this spring. In May to be specific. Unfortunately, I didn’t have time to write up the data until now, so it is slightly out of date. However, I am sure you will agree that whatever happened in the last couple months, it doesn’t substantially change the analysis to follow.

So without further ado, here are the numbers.

Breweries by Province

The first set of numbers is how many breweries does each province have? This table offers up the current state compared to two years ago.

The most glaring observation from this table (here you might want to have my previous post open as well) is that the era of rapid growth is over. In 2020, we were seeing percentage increases in the number of breweries ranging from 40-60% to doubling and tripling over three years. Almost every province was seeing massive increases in the number of breweries. Alberta more than doubled. Newfoundland almost tripled. Even Ontario saw increases of 30%.

Not anymore. Saskatchewan is the only province that recorded a significant increase in breweries in the past two years at 30% increase. Every other province is in single digits or just above (Yukon achieved 25% but that was by one brewery opening).

What does this tell us? A small amount of this decrease is due to a slight increase in brewery closures, but to be frank fewer breweries have closed in the last two years than I would have expected. Craft breweries have proven more resilient during the pandemic than I expected.

So what that leaves us with is that fewer breweries are opening. When I last did this State of the Beer post, breweries were opening every week. Now we are down to one or two a month across the country. Part of this is attributable to the effects of the pandemic (who is going to start a brewery when people are to worried to hang out in a public space?), but I think there is a bigger economic cause at play.

In short, growth in craft beer has slowed across the country. The rapid increase in breweries over the last few years has meant increased competition for a pie that is growing more slowly. Don’t get me wrong, craft beer is still a bull market sector. But it could not sustain the rates of growth we saw in recent years. So, growth is naturally slowing as craft beer both competes with other new alcohol entrants like hard seltzer and bumps against the broader trend of consumers drinking less.

What this means is that existing players need to figure out how to make money in a market where growth is not guaranteed. I might offer a more in-depth analysis of this situation in coming posts. Overall, I consider this a sign of a maturing industry. So, overall, good news.

Per Capita Breweries

So now we turn to my personal favourite statistic. Breweries per capita. Drum roll please.

The topline story is that we have a new king of breweries per capita. For the last few years it was Nova Scotia. If we consider just the provinces, this year New Brunswick took over top place due to its slightly higher rate of growth over the last two years (and that Nova Scotia’s population grew faster).

Of course the table shows clearly that Yukon is the real king of per capita. This year is the first year I have separated the territories in my analysis (due to the nudging of Yukon Brewing’s owner, Bob Baxter, who has appropriately long argued Yukon should be calculated separately). While I fully acknowledge that Yukon is the undisputed king of per capita breweries, I need to establish some continuity with previous analyses where I grouped the territories. So, you are welcome to name either New Brunswick or Yukon as the densest brewery province. I leave it to your choice.

The State of Canadian Beer

So where is Canadian craft beer at?

Overall I think it is in a good position. Most breweries have weathered COVID (although many are limping along at the moment) and the period of rapid expansion is over. We will no longer see new breweries open every week. Instead it will be a trickle of people with new ideas or finding small corners where craft beer is under-represented. The number of closures will increase, although not at the rate I and others were anticipated early in the COVID-era.

There are rocky times ahead. Developments with Beau’s, Steam Whistle, and Amsterdam suggest that, especially for larger players, there are tumultuous times ahead. But that is a topic for another post. I want to rise a bit higher and take an eagle’s eye view for the moment. And that view looks pretty good.

There are more breweries in Canada than ever. Most are surviving. Quality is improving. Some are building international reputations. Others are becoming reliable anchors for a local market. Restrictive provincial laws continue to prevent consumers sampling product from across the country, which curbs national growth, but regional markets continue to mature.

My take is that things are fine, despite the tumult of the last couple years. Events and situations (like rampant inflation, supply chain issues and ingredient shortages – all of which are very real) may make me eat my words, but for now I am confident giving a thumbs up to the state of craft beer in Canada.