Canada’s craft beer industry is larger and more vibrant than the U.S. There, I said it. I have said it before (like here and here), but every time I run the statistics on the number of breweries, I am struck at how this is an untold story. Why do I say this? Because the numbers tell me so.

Sort of.

It is a nuanced argument. And there doesn’t appear to be much space these days for nuanced arguments. But it is what it is. Let me try.

My numbers aside, I will admit that by most measures the American craft beer movement is a decade ahead of Canada, in terms of its penetration, share of the market, and style innovation. Canada looks to the U.S. for what is new, trendy and interesting. Our trends and fads happen 6 months to 2 years after the U.S.

So why do I say Canada is bigger and more vibrant? Statistics! Let me show you a few. The most telling is that Canada has more breweries per capita than the U.S. has.

This statistical fact has remained consistent since I started keeping track. While in the past few years, the U.S. has grown slightly faster than Canada, both countries have kept up a steady pace of brewery growth. Clearly in both countries the “death of craft” is over-rated.

National averages can obscure many important regional variations. The U.S. has a more widely divergent beer scene across each of its states. Canada’s range is more compressed. The most craft-y U.S. states are unrivaled by our provinces, but our regional numbers tend to be clustered closer to the middle, suggesting a more even evolution of the industry. The chart below shows Canadian provinces’ and select U.S. states’ ranking per capita.

This year I added the Territories separately (tip of the hat to Bob Baxter!), which shows just how impressive Yukon is, landing at number two just behind Vermont (also meaning the number of jurisdictions is 64). Canadian provinces mostly sit in the middle of the pack. Of note is that most Canadian provinces fare better than supposed hotbeds of California, New York and Massachusetts.

Of course, Canadian breweries tend to be a lot smaller, but in a way that makes sense because our population is 1/10 the size of the U.S. You build the brewery you need to service your population. In the past I made more apologies for that difference, but I have come to the conclusion that “size doesn’t matter”. Size is about the target market, not about the significance of the brewery, or the brewery market. That we have smaller breweries simply reflects we have fewer people to serve beer to. It is not a measure of success.

As for market share, the Brewers’ Association estimates that craft brewers (a definition they have stretched in recent years) make up 13% of the market. There are no equivalent Canadian numbers as liquor is regulated provincially and the various national associations are either not big enough to have that research heft or possess no interest in highlighting how big craft is. However, my back-of-napkin calculations are that Canada is somewhere near that number. B.C., Quebec and probably Ontario are above that number, while Alberta approaches it and the other provinces grappling towards double digits.

The only thing that really differentiates Canada and the U.S. is that our southern neighbours have a critical mass that allows for both more experimentation (and thus the emergence of new trends and styles) and more broad public recognition. In the U.S. even if only 1% of drinkers like your new seasonal, there is a chance it will be a big success, meaning you try it again. Or something more daring.

They also have a longer craft beer history, the heft of being so much bigger than us, and in many areas being Canada’s cultural beacon. Canadians naturally look south for a sense of what is the next “big thing”. I am not necessarily a fan of this tendency, but it is reality.

This need to look south tends to make Canadians adopt a position of lesser-than. And, in terms of craft beer, that was likely true 20 years ago. But the statistics have been so consistent for almost a decade that I am starting to think that Canadians are working with an outdated narrative.

Overall, the Canadian craft beer scene is doing just fine. Maybe better than the U.S. (although most likely kind of the same, just at 1/10 the size). We need to stop apologizing and deferring to our American craft beer colleagues. Yes, in the U.S. there are some amazing, kick-ass breweries nailing traditional styles, pushing boundaries and charting new territory. There are also thousands of middling breweries making good beer that satisfies their market.

Sound a lot like Canadian breweries? Yup!

I rest my case. Feel free to disagree with me in the comments. I am always up for (respectful) debate.