There have been four brewery closures in Alberta in the last six months. In recent weeks I have had multiple conversations with people worried that this is a signal that the beer industry is falling back.

It’s not. And here is why.

Alberta experienced one of the fastest growth periods I have ever seen in beer. It went from just over a dozen breweries six years ago to over 100 today. That is a rather unprecedented growth. Meanwhile in nearby Saskatchewan and Manitoba, they also saw new breweries open, but in a much more measured and manageable pace. And no breweries are closing there – at least for now.

I say all this to remind all of us that big growth leads to some failures. Yes, four breweries closed recently. The reasons for their closures are different, they each have their own story.

But they are not a sign of an armaggedon. The beer industry in Alberta is doing just fine, thank you. Each month more beer is being sold to local craft brewers than the month before. However, there are two issues that keep thing in check.

First is the economy. There is no denying that the last five years haven’t been great for Alberta. A sluggish economy will lead to fewer craft beer sales. This is the kind of factor that affects every brewery, but, I argue, more the new, less establlished brewery6.

Second, despite its growth, local craft beer remains a small portion of the market. A couple years ago I estimated the craft beer segment in Alberta was about 7%, with about 5% being Big Rock by itself. Today it is not that much bigger, maybe 9%, but definitely still in the single digits. That means there are ten times as many breweries competing in a market that is only a small amount larger.

That will mean some breweries won’t make it.

But it doesn’t mean there is something wrong in the industry. Quite the opposite. This is a perfect example of how an industry matures. There will always be enthusiastic start ups. Whether they make it depends not upon their enthusiasm, but on how solid their business plan is, how good the beer is, and how well capitalized they are.

I am pretty certain we will see more brewery closures in Alberta in the coming months. It only makes sense. Saskatchewan and Manitoba are likely exempt for now. But for every closure there will still be a new opening. The industry is evolving

So my point here is to not panic. Alberta will lose breweries but that doesn’t mean the industry is in trouble. It’s not. It is thriving and will continue to do so.

So let’s mourn the losss of Wood Buffalo, Red Bison, Coulee and Two Sergeants. But let’s not think that this is the end of the craft beer industry in Alberta.